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    【財稅論壇】2014年第十四期(總第89期)
    (2014-12-17 14:12:29)

    題目:Volatility and Economic Regimes: Evidence from a Large Transitional Economy

    時間:2014年12月17日 星期三?? 12:00 – 14:00

    地點:明德主樓714

    報告人:王博群

    摘要:A dramatic decline in aggregate output volatility in China from central planning to market-oriented reforms in the past half century is documented in this paper. The output volatility measured by the standard deviation of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the specified rolling windows declined by 73% from 1953–1977 to 1978–2008. The sharpest reduction occurred in 1978 when China began to initiate a series of market reforms. Since the inception of these reforms, the volatility continued to decline, dropping more than 30% from 1978–1994 to 1995–2008. During the planning period, the co-movements in the provincial output, which reflected the systemic risks associated with the highly centralized economic and political systems in China, were found to be the primary source of the high output volatility.

    報告人簡介:王博群,美國約翰·霍普金斯大學博士候選人,主要研究領域為國際金融、宏觀計量、中國經濟等,在Papers in Regional Science等雜志發表論文,并有多篇工作論文。

     

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    財稅論壇是由中國人民大學財政與稅收研究所主辦,旨在研討公共經濟學中的理論研究和政策實踐等問題,促進理論研究和公共政策的有效結合。論壇主題主要包括:政府行為、財政體制、稅收體制及宏觀經濟等。誠邀各位同仁前來報告與研討!

    論壇主持人:薛澗坡(jpxue@ruc.edu.cn

     

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